If you are doing your own research on this COVID-19 disease and all that’s happening with it, then it’s likely you’re coming across some conflicting information. One of the main issues in finding reliable COVID information is the large amount of politicizing taking place. You would think with a global killer pandemic we could pull together, but apparently not.
I’ve just finished looking at this CDC “report” everyone is referring to (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html). First of all, it’s not a report, it’s a series of planning scenarios. Second, the information is at least a month out of date. And thirdly and most importantly… I’m not sure where the people who wrote these “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios” got their calculations, but simple math can show it’s incorrect.
In “Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate,” they’re are stating the overall Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio is 0.4% (0.004). What “Symptomatic Case” should mean is anyone who is showing symptoms. Let’s take this number and see how accurate it is against real world data we know to be true:
Currently, there are 1,697,459 COVID-19 cases in the US. If we apply the Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio (rate) of 0.4% to the total number of cases (1,697,459 x 0.004), the result is only 6,790 deaths (rounded up). And yet, we have over 100,000 deaths right now. That’s an error of 14 times.
Why is there an error of such magnitude? For that answer, you have to go back and read the definition of Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio. It states right in the definition they’re not using real numbers, though they do not state how they came to include people who have symptoms but aren’t reported as having symptoms. This is, at best, an honest mistake where these planning scenarios should have stayed inside the CDC. At worst, it’s junk science.
At the beginning of this pandemic, when we hit here in the states, we saw a large community focus on the virus and what we could do about. Once it was realized it wasn’t as horrifically bad as some expected, the fracturing started along party lines. This may very well be our undoing in this country, but that remains to be seen.
Unfortunately, you can’t argue about how ignorant someone is if they’re an ignoramus. If you’re getting your news and information from Facebook, Twitter, or any social media platform, you’re likely ill-informed.
There are a couple of podcasts on YouTube you should be watching:
– Dr. John Campbell (https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching)
– Peak Prosperity with Dr. Chris Martenson (https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom)
Both of these contain well-researched information and are worth your time to watch them. For Dr. Campbell’s podcasts, go back and listen to those which pique your interest, as he puts out more everyday. For Dr. Martenson and the Peak Properity podcast, I strongly suggest you go back to the beginning of February and watch them all. His information is excellent and his conclusions are spot on. You’d do well to familiarize yourself with this information.
One of the things to keep in mind at all times is viral load. At some point, you’re going to catch this virus; you can’t avoid it. What you want, though, is to catch this through a small viral load. When your body gets a small dose of the virus, it has a much better chance of fighting it. If you were to get a large dose of virus, like when someone infected not wearing a mask sneezes in your face, you’re going to have a much harder time fighting this disease. Viruses grow exponentially, so the smaller the dose, the longer it takes before the virus can overwhelm your body.
Just using random numbers for simplicity, let’s assume it takes 1 million virus to overwhelm your body, and the number of virus doubles every 6 hours.
A small viral load of 1000 viruses will take about 60 hours to reach 1 million. A large viral load of 10,000 will take about 39 hours to reach 1 million. The actual numbers are different, but you get the point.
Depending on which group of people you listen to, the pandemic ranges from “about like seasonal flu” to “you’re going to kill someone if you leave your house!” Like most issues, the truth lies somewhere in between.
Let’s start with some things we know to be true.
– This is not the flu; It’s not an influenza virus. It’s a coronavirus, the same kind that causes illness like the common cold, as well as SARS and MERS.
– We have never created a vaccine for any coronavirus. Though there is a lot of excitement for a COVID-19 vaccine, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
– This is a novel virus. This means no human has ever been exposed to it before and no one has prior immunity to it.
– The virus can be transmitted in a number of ways. The easiest human-to-human transmission occurs with droplets from the mouth through coughing and sneezing. However, an infected person is also breathing out virus with every exhale.
– Unlike the flu, you can be contagious without having symptoms. This is extremely important to understand. With most illnesses, you really don’t have to worry about being contagious to someone else until you’re showing signs (symptoms) of being sick. With COVID-19, you are infectious even if you feel completely healthy.
– This disease can affect you in a number of ways: lungs, stomach, liver, kidneys, brain, blood – it seems every week we’re learning more and more about how this virus can affect the body. It’s truly a bizarre virus (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/from-headaches-to-covid-toes-coronavirus-symptoms-are-a-bizarre-mix1/)
– Just because you recover from COVID-19 doesn’t mean your healed. Many people have long term, possibly permanent, damage from this virus.
– This virus isn’t political. It doesn’t care who’s in power. It doesn’t care what you think about it. Humans may politicize it, but none of the facts will change.
The SAR-COV2 virus, which causes the COVID-19 illness, is a serious issue.
As I write this today, 5-27-2020, there are 1,697,459 cases of COVID-19 here in the states and over 100,000 deaths. Clearly, this is worse than seasonal flu (we’ll be talking about those numbers later). Truthfully, though, this could be worse. If this were a novel avian flu virus, like a virulent H5N1 variant, we’d be looking at a situation far worse than we are today.
Initially, this looked like a disease that mainly affected the elderly, but as it has spread across countries, we’re finding that this isn’t the whole story. The elderly, and those with preexisting conditions – called co-morbidities – are at a higher risk of dying from this virus, but we’re finding many younger people are also greatly affected.
If you objectively do your own research on this, you’ll find this is something we’ll be dealing with for quite a while, possible years. Here’s why:
– It’s a killer virus. Currently, this is thought to have a fatality rate of somewhere in the 2-4% range. It’s easy to do the math on this: 7,800,000,000 global population x 0.03 average fatality rate = 234,000,000 dead. That’s 234 MILLION deaths worldwide. However, I track this everyday and the CFR is a solid 6%. That means, of the known cases, 6% of those people will die. Certainly, we have asymptomatic people out there, and mild cases that aren’t going in for tests, so 6% is probably on the high side. Time will tell.
– As best as can be calculated, it’s only infected less than 10% of the total population. That means we will be dealing with this for years. Even if we get a vaccine, we don’t know how effective it will be or how long it will provide immunity. We don’t even know how long immunity will last for those who’ve survived COVID-19.