It’s been a tough summer for stocks and other risky assets — but the same can’t be said for agricultural commodities. Hot, dry drought conditions have ruined crops all across the American growing regions. At the same time, demand remains robust thanks to the big appetites of newly empowered eaters in the developing world.
The USDA cut its forecast of how much of the standing corn crop is in good or excellent shape to just 57%, down from 60% last week and 70% a year ago. Already, with carryover stocks low from last year, a poor harvest will do further damage to meager inventories. At the same time, China has recently become a net importer of corn and last year made its largest purchase of U.S. corn in ten years. Of course, demand from ethanol production continues as well.
The combination of tighter supply and stronger demand is sending prices higher once more. As a result, as a group agricultural goods are pushing up and out of a long seven-month downtrend dating back to February. A powerful new uptrend is being established. Here’s how to take advantage.