We’re hearing a lot about a flu epidemic. Is this something we need to be concerned about? Are we looking at a new flu pandemic? In my opinion, no, we’re not. Let’s take a look at some facts and look into this.

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First, a computer virus – Disable Java in your web browser

Notes for this section:

• US-CERT warns users to disable Java in web browsers, Apple and Mozilla move to block it
• http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/12/us-cert-java-security-warning/
• You should always have Java disabled in your web browser, except when you need it. Disable it again, as soon as you don’t need it anymore.
• And, be very careful when it’s enabled.

The Flu Seems to be getting bad – Is it really, or are we just overreacting?

Notes for this section:

• Many cities are declaring a flu emergency and even calling it a flu epidemic.
• To be sure, the flu is nothing to sneeze at, as it kills people every season.
• First, let’s outline some facts for a little perspective. And to do that, I’m going to tell you a story about sharks.
• Eight or ten years ago, there was a lot of people scared that sharks were going crazy and attacking people more than ever. We started hearing about shark attacks from all over the world, particularly around the United States. Many people started to wonder if this was some sort of earth change, and many were too scared to go into the ocean.
  • In reality, there were less shark attacks that year than the normal average. The reason for the panic was due to all of the media attention about shark attacks.
  • My point here, is that just because everyone is talking about it doesn’t mean that it’s newsworthy.
• Do you know how many people die from the flu every year? The truth is that no one knows how many people die from the flu each year, including the CDC.
  • ” (The) CDC estimates that from the 1976-1977 season to the 2006-2007 flu season, flu-associated deaths ranged from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 people. “
  • The reason we don’t know is that tracking real flu deaths is difficult, for several reasons. These include no requirement from states to report flu deaths. Also, it is often secondary conditions brought on by the flu that kills people, such as pneumonia.
  • 36,000 annual flu deaths is the statistic that’s often used, due to a statistical modeling technique that was used to study flu from 1990 to 1999 and presented in a CDC study in 2003. This modeling is typical for what they use now.
  • However, the “CDC believes that the range of deaths over the past 31 years (~3,000 to ~49,000) is a more accurate representation of the unpredictability and variability of flu-associated deaths.”
  • The important thing to take away from this is 1) the CDC doesn’t keep numbers on actual annual deaths caused by flu, and 2) it’s not unusual for there to be upwards of 50,000 deaths from influenza.
  • http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm
• Back in the 2009-2010 winter season, we had a pandemic scare. The flu strain at the time went global, but we were lucky that it had a very low mortality rate. It could have been a lot worse.
• The key issues with flu is how fast the virus is spreading, how fast it can kill, who it kills, and how many it’s killed so far.
• Who it kills – typically, the flu affects seniors and small children the most, due to either a compromised or under-developed immunity system. When a flu virus starts killing people in between this age range – IOW, those with stronger immune systems – this is cause for concern, as the virus is distinctly different from typical influenza viruses.
• …
• Speaking of the pandemic of 2009? Remember how the media mocked the CDC because of their warnings about it?
• Take a look at the CDC’s seasonal flu page and the graphs that are on it. Notice how the 2009 period shows a worse flu season than what we have now, yet the media and NY make it sound like we’re all about to die from the flu.

News Sources – Here’s what’s going on around the country, right now.

Notes for this section:

• Reported by RSOE:
  
  • (New York) “With about 20,000 cases of the flu reported in the state so far, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has declared a public health emergency in New York. The state Health Department says the number of people admitted to hospitals with confirmed cases of the flu jumped 55 percent last week.Two children have died. As of Jan. 5, DOH has received reports of 2,884 patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza, compared to 1,169 total hospitalizations in 2011. Officials say the number of cases is likely to climb because flu is highly contagious, and victims can still spread it even after they begin to feel better.”
  • Hmm, wow, seems like a dire situation!
  • No, not really. Some of these reports are talking about influenza-like-illness (ILI), which is not a confirmed case of the flu.
  • There are 19,465,197 people in the state of NY. 20,000 flu cases is only 0.1 % of the population.
  • AND, this is only the number of people that HAVE the flu. This isn’t how many people have died, it’s simply a count of how many people have reportedly become sick with influenza.
• BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20995491
  • “Last week 7.3% of US deaths were caused by pneumonia and the flu, just above epidemic threshold, said the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
  • If you go to the CDC’s seasonal flu page, you’ll find this:
  • “During week 1, 7.3% of all deaths reported through the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza). This percentage was slightly above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 1.”
  • 0.1% is a very small number. It’s BARELY above the threshold, but the media is spinning the facts so it seems that we’re in a more dire situation than we really are.

What you can do – How to protect yourself

Notes for this section:

• This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t take this seriously. Certainly, don’t panic, but stay informed and keep an eye on the situation.
• The flu season goes until April. We’re only in the middle of the flu season, so we need to keep an eye on this.
• The best thing you can do to protect yourself from influenza, and many other diseases, is to each your hands; thoroughly and frequently.
  • Lather up and scrub for at least 20 seconds (sing the A-B-C song twice).
• In between hand-washings, or if you can’t get to a sink, use a hand sanitizer that has a minimum of 60% alcohol.
• Don’t touch your face, especially your mouth, eyes or nose, until after you’re washed or sanitized your hands.
• Stay away from sick people. If someone is obviously sick, stay a minimum of six feet, with 10 feet being better. Also, avoid touching anything that someone sick has touched, like a keyboard.
• During the winter months, we heat our homes and that dries out the air. Run a humidifier to increase the humidity. Ideally, you want it to be in the 40% to 60% range.
• Back off on the alcoholic drinks, which can reduce your body’s ability to fight infection.
• Cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze. Either use a tissue, napkin or the crook of your arm to cover your mouth.
• Get the proper nutrition BEFORE you get sick. Once your sick, vitamins and nutrition won’t help your recovery.
• Get plenty of sleep.
• All of these protection measures also apply to a pandemic killer flu scenario, though there are some more extreme measures that you would want to consider. We’l cover these in a separate podcast.

Flu Vaccine – Should you get it?

Notes for this section:

• I can’t tell you whether you should or not. Much like the debate on politics, religion and guns, everyone seems to have a militant opinion.
• Personally, I don’t get the vaccine. Many people think that the vaccine is a panacea for the flu, but it’s not. It’s a best guess of which strains will be present next flu season.

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Last updated by Rob Hanus at January 16, 2013.